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Securing Elliptic Curve Cryptocurrencies against Quantum Vulnerabilities: Resource Estimates and Mitigations.
New resource estimates suggest quantum computers may threaten modern cryptography with fewer qubits than previously expected, increasing pressure to adopt post-quantum security.
Babbush et., al
April 1, 2026
April 2026 highlighted growing concerns that powerful quantum computers could threaten today’s encryption sooner than expected.
Research from Google Quantum AI and Oratomic estimated that breaking 256-bit elliptic-curve cryptography might require only about 1,200–1,450 logical qubits, potentially translating to fewer than 500,000 physical qubits under specific future hardware assumptions.
Current quantum computers cannot perform such attacks, and the estimates depend heavily on error correction, hardware performance, and architecture. Nevertheless, the findings reduce the perceived security margin for cryptocurrencies, financial systems, governments, and businesses.
They also reinforce the urgency of post-quantum cryptography to prevent “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks and protect sensitive data before large-scale quantum computers arrive.
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